Dave Lilly doesn’t have to start fishing to determine if the Raritan Bay striped bass run is underway. That striper pro just looks at his Hazlet, N.J. sidewalk to see if earthworms are there after a heavy rain. Sure enough, the first boat reports of some decent action with school stripers up to keeper size are just starting to come in. See the photo below of Capt. John Contello with his icebreaker striper of the season caught at night this week on his Just Sayin from Keyport.

The big spawning bass shouldn’t be far behind, as the bay is loaded with bunkers. If the weekend is fishable, I expect to hear of the first few bigger linesiders which may be trolled with stretch plugs. April is the “sure thing” month, but the first large bass were already hitting bunkers at this time last year after a mild winter. Check the HRFA website at hrfa.org for details on the upcoming Fred Rung Striped Bass Memorial Tournament on the Hudson River and its tributaries.

There were no reports from this morning. and as I’m writing this afternoon the trees outside my office window bending over.

A small craft warning is up for southwest winds to 30 knots through late tonight, but it should drop to west at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 by morning — before diminishing during the day to 5-10 knots as seas settle to 3-4 feet.

Sunday is predicted to start with southeast winds at 15-20 knots with showers and a shift to south at 20-25 knots plus gusts to 30 in the afternoon,

At Belmar. the Ocean Explorer will sail Saturday for cod and ling, while the Golden Eagle will start its season at 7:30 a.m. by targeting the same species The Big Mohawk will kick off their season on April 1 to fish for blackfish. Winter flounder fishing off the Belmar docks has been slow so far, but may be worth trying with the south winds and mild temperatures.

Though the big girls still haven’t arrived in Raritan Bay, legal bass and shorts seem to be turning on.

Capt. John Contello of Just Sayin at Keyport had a keeper plus short action last night, and Chuck Many broke through with his Ty Man from Highlands today as illustrated by Dave Glassberg’s striper.

Friday’s weather starts with the possibility of a thunder storm and south winds at 15-20 knots that increase to 30 knot gusts later.

Today’s rain will probably muddy inshore waters, but there’s a fine wind forecast for tomorrow with just 5 knots northwest. Patchy fog could be an early problem.

The Ocean Explorer from Belmar had a nice cod plus some ling during Tuesday’s trip when they had to fight through dogfish in a surprisingly big swell.

Capt. Freddy Gamboa moved his Andreas Toy up to Raritan Bay over the weekend and did some scouting around which produced the first legal striper from a boat that I’ve heard of. There were no details given on Facebook about that 30-inch catch shown below..

The Ocean Explorer from Belmar got out Monday and had good fishing for some cod and ling.

The marine weather forecast includes a small craft advisory through Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday starts with east winds at 10-15 knots with patchy fog and possible showers before increasing to 20 knot gusts later in the morning.

Though last night’s blog included a report from Carnivore of some action with school stripers in Raritan Bay, Capt. Joe Massa had a different report from My Three Sons at Morgan Marina. Joe hasn’t caught a bass yet, despite running all over the bay.

The good news Sunday was that there were bunkers everywhere and gannets diving. Yet, trolling stretch plugs didn’t produce, nor did drifting worms. Joe didn’t have any marks to work on at the same time in March he was into lots of pre-spawning stripers last year. Water temperatures were only 40 to 45 degrees, and that’s probably the reason the bass are missing. Remember that the winter before last was very mild while last winter was frigid. The bay should warm up this week with milder air temperatures.

The Ocean Explorer from Belmar reported a pick of ling and cod in good conditions Sunday.

The wind forecast has gone up for Tuesday to east at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20. Seas are 4 to 6 feet.

Capt. Rick Woerner gave it a good try today in Raritan Bay with his Carnivore from Browns in Keyport, but found only small bass. It’s still early for the big bass, though some were caught by the third week in March last year.

Bob Matthews reports from Fisherman’s Den in Belmar Marina that flounder fishing remains slow, but there have been small striper reports from the back bays and rivers.

The weather is looking better with east winds at just 5 to 10 knots tomorrow, and light winds coming up the next few days.

Warmer weather is coming this week, and more anglers should be looking for party boats to fish from. The Ocean Explorer from Belmar has been fishing all winter, and will be taking advantage of a good forecast tomorrow. Also at Belmar, the Golden Eagle has announced they will be starting Saturday and Sunday, March 27 and 28 for ling and cod at 7:30 a.m.

The Mimi VI from Point Pleasant starts on April 1. Monday and Friday tautog trips leave at 6:30 with a 15 man limit at $110, while Tuesday to Thursday trips with a 20 man limit sail at 7 for $90. Call 732 370-8019 for reservations.

Nick Honachefsky reports the last showing of his Saltwater Underground TV show on party boat fishing will run Sunday at 4:30 a.m. and p.m. on Sportsman Channel. That’s Nick below with the ugly but protected ocean pout.

Friday has been windy as expected, and the gale warning lasts through the afternoon before winds start diminishing.

By morning it should be down to 10-15 knots from the north with gusts to 25. However, looking ahead to Sunday the forecast is for just 5-10 knots northeast with seas down to two feet or less. As a result, the Ocean Explorer will sail from Belmar for cod on Sunday.

Betty & Nick’s Tackle in Seaside Park reports they have bloodworms in stock.

Fishing prospects in NY/NJ Bight aren’t looking very good as the rain may discolor some inshore areas, and small craft warnings are up from 1 a.m. through Friday.

Friday’s forecast is for north winds of 25-30 knots with gusts to 45. Possible showers early change to snow or rain — but Sunday looks much better.

Raritan Bay shoreline anglers continue to catch some mostly short stripers and have seen some bunkers breaking. Last year the fishery for large stripers on bunkers broke open very early during the third week in March.

Winter flounder are a possibility off the Belmar docks, but sunny days with light winds are your best bet in that fishery. The Ocean Explorer is sailing for cod when the weather makes it possible and enough anglers show up — which wasn’t the case on the one nice day this week, A very rare fish was caught last Thursday on that boat — an Atlantic mackerel! There was no explanation of the photo, but I suspect it hit an empty hook being reeled up. That species used to be the most abundant in the Bight when they provided spring and winter migratory runs. They are never alone, but this one was here much too early to signal the return of a spring run.

After a little break it’s back to bad weather tomorrow. Though the morning starts with only 5-10 knot east winds, there’s a chance of rain followed by an almost 100% chance later. Northeast gusts to 40 knots move in after midnight.